Lights, Camera, Action: UFC 311 Preview

Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan II via Sportskeeda.com

Lights, Camera, Action

On Saturday, January 18th, at the Intuit Dome, the UFC is headed to Hollywood for a spectacular night of mixed martial arts. The card will feature two title fights, a title eliminator, and loads of matchups that are sure not to disappoint.

Almeida vs. Spivac:

Starting off at the prelims, we begin with a pivotal matchup in the heavyweight division between Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac. This bout is not only a contrast in styles but also in career trajectory. The Brazilian was on track to a heavyweight title shot, riding a 15-fight win streak. Unfortunately, he ran into a battle-tested Curtis Blaydes, suffering an unexpected TKO loss at UFC 299. However, he bounced back with an impressive victory over a formidable opponent, Alexander Romanov. Spivac is coming off a dominant performance against Marcin Tybura, securing a first-round armbar submission and exiting the contest fresh. Nonetheless, the Polar Bear is taking a significant step up in competition, and with a victory at UFC 311, a top-five matchup is undoubtedly in the cards. Almeida will look to implement his elite grappling skills to overwhelm Spivac on the ground. With an average of nearly seven takedown attempts per 15 minutes inside the octagon from Almeida, Spivac’s defense will have to be sharp the entire contest. Furthermore, the Brazillian is a significant submission threat, with an average of roughly three submission attempts per 15 minutes. On the feet, Spivac is sure to have the advantage, and he will need to utilize his large frame to stay off the fence, avoid takedown attempts, and use his hands effectively. This matchup will undoubtedly shake up the heavyweight division, and the winner moves one fight closer to UFC gold. 

Walker vs. Guskov:

Moving onto a bout in the light heavyweight division, Johnny Walker looks to get back in the win column against a scrappy Bogdan Guskov. For Walker, if he's hoping to linger around in the upper echelon of light heavyweight contenders, this fight is a must-win. With back-to-back brutal knockout losses to Magomed Ankalaev and Volkan Oezdemir, the Brazillian will need to avoid the hands of Guskov. An underrated aspect of Walker's game is his Brazillian ju-jitsu, which he rarely implements, only having three takedowns in his UFC career. However, Walker’s chin has demonstrated an inability to take any blows, so if he chooses to stand and trade with the Uzbekistanian, he may be looking at a third straight fight ending on his back. Guskov, after a rough UFC debut, strung together a winning streak with a recent TKO victory over Ryan Spann. Guskov will need to get inside the range of 6’7 Walker, utilizing dirty boxing to reach the Brazallian’s chin to aim for the finish. If victorious, a top-ten matchup will be a significant possibility for the striker out of Uzbekistan.

Holland vs. de Ridder

Moving onto the main card, Kevin Holland takes on UFC newcomer and former ONE FC double champion Reinier de Ridder in the middleweight division. Since joining the UFC, the expectation for the Dutchmen has been a UFC title. In his first fight, the hyped-up newcomer took on veteran Gerald Meerschaert in a battle that surprisingly almost went to a decision if not for a late submission from de Ridder. With 16 finishes in 20 fights, de Ridder is a threat at all times, and Holland will have to mitigate his wrestling if he wants to find success in the fight. For the Trailblazer, he continues to be one of the most active fighters in the company, and the fan favorite will undoubtedly continue to put on entertaining performances for the fans. 

Dariush vs. Moicano:

In the lightweight division, veteran Beneil Dariush takes on surging Renato Moicano. This fight was somewhat unexpected, given the contrasting trajectory of the two fighters. Moicano is currently on a four-fight win streak, with victories over Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and Benoit Saint-Denis. The Brazillian is looking to insert himself into title contention, feeling disrespected with the matchups being dealt. Moicano has yet to be granted a matchup inside the top five, but with a convincing victory over a battle-tested Dariush in a featured bout slot, a top-five matchup will be guaranteed. In the other corner, this is Dariush's last chance to keep his name in the top ten. With back-to-back first-round knockout defeats to Charles Oliveria and Arman Tsarukyan, Dariush will have to demonstrate resistance to Moicano’s pressure. However, Moicano’s most significant advantage is on the ground, with a smothering top game that crumbles opponents into submission. His recent victory over Saint-Denis attests to this, with the Brazillian brutalizing his opponent with ground and pound, securing the second-round finish. This fight is a risk for Moicano, and climbing the ladder to title contention will be impossible if he loses. For Dariush, this is his last chance at remaining in the upper echelon of UFC lightweights.

Prochazka vs. Hill

Shifting to a compelling light heavyweight title eliminator, former champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill face off. Jiri Prochazka is coming off a brutal defeat at the hands of the champion, Alex Periera, a defeat which exposed many flaws in the Czech’s game. Periera was effectively able to parry Jiri’s attacks, using hand fighting to control the distance and punishing Prochazka either with damaging leg kicks or his patent left hook. Poatan effectively mitigated Prochazka’s pressure, chopping away at his legs and finishing the fight with a highlight reel head kick. For Sweet Dreams, he’s also looking to get back into the win column after a first-round defeat to the current champion. Hill has been reluctant to accept the loss, stating on his podcast that Prochazka “got dominated” while he simply “got caught.” This attitude could be a risk to Hill as if the necessary adjustments are not made, Prochazka's erratic pressure-filled style could be too much to deal with. However, after a dominant performance at UFC 283, defeating Glover Texeira to win the title, Hill still has an opportunity to carry momentum from that performance and leave the contest victorious. The slick southpaw striker will have to develop a better comfort for fighting on the back foot, a style which was ineffective against Periera. Hill will have to handle Prochazka’s blitzes and have improved distance management. As we’ve seen before, Jiri is susceptible to high kicks, with his guard being low and stance wide, so look for Sweet Dreams to finish the fight by utilizing his kicks. Whoever emerges victorious will be in prime position to fight for the light heavyweight strap next. 

Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov

Moving onto the co-main event, Bantamweight champion​​ Merab Dvalishvili takes on undefeated contender Umar Nurmagomedov. The champion is coming off a dominant victory at Noché UFC, defeating company star Sean O’Malley while riding an 11-fight win streak, with wins over multiple former champions in Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, and Jose Aldo. The Georgian looks unbeatable, with no one able to handle his smothering style and frantic pace. Dvalishvili’s cardio is his most dangerous attribute, demonstrating the ability to push forward for 25 minutes. His fight against Yan attests to this: the champion shot for a record-breaking 49 takedown attempts in 25 minutes. Having a Khabib-esque style, opponents know what is coming but cannot stop it; however, if anyone can dethrone the Georgian, it's undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. Stemming from a legendary family of fighters, Umar has benefitted from being around the best. Training out of AKA, with the likes of pound-for-pound number one Islam Makhachev, Umar is proof of the evolving Dagestani style. The Russian possesses a smothering ground game and is no novice on the feet with slick kickboxing fundamentals. His most recent convincing victory over Cory Sandhagen attests to the evolution of Dagestani fighters, with Umar overwhelming his opponent with a mix of takedowns and elite striking, securing number-one contender status. Dvalishvili has voiced his concerns over Nurmagomedov’s title shot, being that the challenger only has one win over ranked competition to date. However, the versatile range of tools Nurmagomedov possesses makes him a formidable task for the champion. In all likelihood, it would be in the Russian’s best interest to stay on the feet with the champion, an area in which he could find great success. The two fighters are virtually equal on the ground, so Merab’s path to victory must be his pace, forcing the challenger to wilt under pressure. 

Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Shifting to the main event, pound-for-pound King Islam Makhachev takes on Arman Tsarukyan in a rematch taking place nearly five years later. The two fighters were destined to cross paths, with both having high expectations entering the UFC. In his debut for the company, Tsarukyan took on Makhachev and gave an impressive performance. Despite losing in a decision, the Armenian made Islam look human, something minimal fighters have achieved. Following his debut, Tsarukyan has gone 9-1, securing victories over Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveria, cementing himself as the number-one contender in the lightweight division. Tsarukyan possesses outstanding grappling skills, overwhelming the majority of opponents he has faced with his pressure-oriented style, taking fighters into the later rounds and drowning them. However, the man standing across the octagon hasn’t lost in nearly a decade. Islam Makhachev stems from a legendary family of fighters who took over the UFC. Coached and mentored by the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, father of Khabib Nurmagomedov, the champion contains arguably the best wrestling in all of the sport. Excluding a minor blemish on his record, Makhachev has rarely come across an opponent who presents any resistance, having the ability to take opponents down at will. The Combat Sambo master has an average of three takedown attempts per 15 minutes, which is misleading. Makhachev’s ability to maintain top control for consecutive rounds makes him a dangerous threat; coupled with his elite jiu-jitsu skills, you have a nightmare for opposing fighters. On top of that, the champion has developed adequate striking skills to round out his game, and he is currently one of the most complete fighters in the company. His knockout over Alex Volkanovski attests to this, as well as the five-round war between him and Dustin Poirier, who is renowned as a top boxer in the UFC. Makhachev will surely implement his elite wrestling in this bout, but the champion should find comfort with exchanging on the feet. Don’t be surprised if Tsarukyan engages in the wrestling sequences; however, with both fighters having 70%+ takedown defense rates, this fight may be primarily striking-oriented. For Tsarukyan, the path to success will be to weather the early storm, be composed, and avoid being controlled on the ground. As the fight goes to the later rounds, we've seen Makhachev wither away, attempting fewer takedowns and being content in a brawl, a scenario that dramatically favors the challenger. Nonetheless, no one has solved the puzzle of Islam Makhachev, and it will take a flawless 25-minute performance to dethrone the Lightweight champion. If Makhachev is to emerge victorious, a second belt has to be the goal, securing a shot at the welterweight belt for double champion status. For Tsarukyan, if he is to exit the contest victorious, he will be cemented near the top of the pound-for-pound rankings, and his legacy will be immortalized in lightweight history.

Which light-heavyweight contender will reinsert themselves in the title picture? Which bantamweight will secure dominance over the division? Finally, in the long-anticipated rematch, which fighter will demonstrate greater evolution since their last contest? All questions get answered on January 18th at UFC 311.

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